Colombia set to test Ghana's surprising defensive resolve in last-32 clash

Colombia finished atop Group K with back-to-back victories and carry genuine attacking momentum into the knockout stage. Across their opening two matches, they created a stream of chances, with Daniel Muñoz scoring in both contests and Luis Díaz combining swagger with ruthless finishing. The side's work rate and willingness to press opponents high have drawn particular praise from observers, and they secured qualification well before their final group outing against Portugal.

Ghana, by contrast, have squeezed their way through Group L via disciplined, low-block defending. Under Carlos Queiroz's shrewd stewardship, they held England to a goalless draw and have conceded just once in three group matches. Benjamin Asare, their goalkeeper, has kept clean sheets against England and earned plaudits for his composure under sustained pressure. Yet while Ghana's defensive organisation is undeniable, their attacking output remains a concern—they created few genuine openings and showed limited ambition in the final third.

The Elo model favours Colombia decisively, reflecting both their superior underlying performance and their attacking potential. Colombia's adjusted rating sits well above Ghana's, and the quantitative gap translates into a meaningful edge. The market has priced Colombia as favourites, though the probability implied by the best odds leaves room for a view that Colombia's superiority—particularly in attacking incisiveness—is underrated. Ghana will pose a physical and organisational challenge, but their lack of goal-scoring threat suggests they will struggle to create the kind of attacking sustained pressure needed to trouble Colombia's relatively compact defence.

This is a fixture where Colombia's more complete profile—combining work rate, press resistance, and genuine finishing quality—should tell. Ghana's defensive grit will keep the match tight, but the desk's read is that Colombia's attacking edge offers value at the implied odds.