England heavily favoured but DR Congo offer late-tournament resilience

England advanced as Group L winners with wins over Croatia and Panama, though neither performance inspired total confidence. The model sees England's superiority in squad depth and attacking threat as decisive, with Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane combining effectively in the latter stages of the group phase. Kane has now become England's all-time leading World Cup goalscorer, while Bellingham has scored five of his eight international goals in major tournaments—a marker of the quality on show.

DR Congo, meanwhile, claimed a dramatic comeback win over Uzbekistan to secure their first World Cup appearance in 52 years and their first-ever knockout qualification. Yoane Wissa finished the group stage as a joint-leading African scorer with three goals, and Sebastien Desabre's side has built their identity on defensive solidity; they have never lost by more than one goal under his four-year tenure. The coach switched tactically between a back five and a 4-4-2 to suit matchups, signalling flexibility that should not be underestimated.

England's vulnerabilities are real. Declan Rice's availability remains uncertain after a calf issue, and the right-back position is in crisis: Reece James nursed a hamstring strain, Tino Livramento was ruled out before the tournament, and Jarell Quansah picked up an ankle injury against Panama. The defence has leaked chances—Panama forced 13 attempts on goal despite losing 2-0—and without Rice's screening, England's midfield can look porous. DR Congo's attacking threats, particularly Wissa and Cedric Bakambu, will test an backline already stretched by personnel issues.

The desk's Elo model positions England well clear, reflecting both teams' summer performances and historical strength. However, the market has priced the match in a way that acknowledges DR Congo's structural tightness and Wissa's tournament form. England's path to the final looks inviting—they have avoided the France–Argentina block—but knockout football rewards both organisation and clinical finishing, neither of which England has demonstrated consistently. Tuchel has signalled the team will "step up" in the knockouts, a statement that feels necessary given the group-stage churn in selection and tactical messaging.