Ivory Coast face uphill task against in-form Norway in World Cup knockout clash

Ivory Coast's maiden World Cup knockout appearance comes against one of the tournament's surprise packages. The Ivorians secured progression to the last 32 for the first time in their history after a hard-fought campaign in Group E, finishing runners-up behind Germany and ahead of Ecuador and Curaçao. They will now face Norway, who have rediscovered their attacking verve in their first World Cup appearance since 1998.

Norway's campaign has been defined by the extraordinary form of Erling Haaland, who has scored in each of his first two group-stage matches and sits among the tournament's leading marksmen. The Manchester City forward's movement, pace, and finishing have been clinical, and he will lead the line alongside supporting cast including captain Martin Ødegaard and winger Antonio Nusa. Norway qualified from Group I in second place behind France, a group that featured Iraq and Senegal, and come into this knockout tie with momentum.

From a model perspective, Norway hold a material advantage. The Elo ratings reflect their stronger recent pedigree and Haaland's individual quality, and the model's probability sits well above the implied market price on the Scandinavians. The edge is substantial and sits with the Norwegian side. Ivory Coast, by contrast, are regarded as the underdog, though their path to the knockout stage and attacking talent—centred on players like Yan Diomande and Amad Diallo—suggests they carry enough threat to remain competitive.

The market has not fully accounted for Norway's tournament form relative to the model's assessment. While the implied odds on Ivory Coast reflect their underdog status, they do not price in the full Elo divergence. For Norway, the combination of Haaland's goal-scoring spree, the team's collective sharpness, and a clear model edge creates a scenario where the Scandinavians offer value at the current terms.

Ivory Coast will rely on defensive organisation and set-piece threats, but containing Haaland will be the central challenge. Norway's defensive vulnerabilities may offer openings, yet the model suggests the balance tips decisively toward the Ø degaard-led side. The desk's analysis favours the team with the clearer pathway to victory based on both form and underlying strength.