Croatia offer value as underdogs against England's World Cup opener

England are tournament heavyweights arriving with an unbeaten qualifying campaign and a proven new manager in Thomas Tuchel, yet Croatia are no novices on this stage. The visitors reached the 2018 World Cup final and took third place four years ago, a resume that speaks to resilience and tactical discipline under Zlatko Dalic. The desk's Elo model assigns England a commanding advantage, reflecting their ranking and recent form, but the market has priced them materially higher than the model's probability, leaving room for the outsider.

Croatia's midfield remains anchored by experience: Luka Modric, now 40, continues to dictate tempo, and Mateo Kovacic provides athleticism and control alongside him. The squad is bolstered by rising talent—Petar Sucic has established himself as a versatile midfielder at Inter Milan, while Luka Vuskovic is a generational defensive prospect. Andrej Kramaric has been prolific for Hoffenheim, and Josko Gvardiol, despite a four-month absence through injury, has since returned and started regularly for Manchester City. All 26 squad members are available.

England's strength is undeniable. Harry Kane enters in exceptional form, and the midfield boasts Jude Bellingham and creative depth across the forward line. Yet England suffered a late injury blow: Tino Livramento's calf injury forced his withdrawal, and Bukayo Saka remains touch-and-go with an achilles problem. More subtly, England's recent record against top opposition is patchy—draws with Uruguay and losses to Japan and Senegal under Tuchel point to vulnerabilities when facing structured, experienced defences.

Croatia have a proven habit of performing in knockout and high-stakes fixtures, backed by a locker room described as passionate and disciplined. They trailed in several knockout ties at the last two tournaments yet found ways through. Ivan Perisic, at 37, remains one of world football's most dangerous crossers. The back three that Croatia are expected to deploy offers defensive stability and allows their wing-backs to press high—a setup that has troubled England in the past.

The market prices the draw and Croatia's chances at levels the model does not fully support, assigning the visitors a clearer probability of claiming a result than the odds imply. With all squad depth available, a midfield that controls possession, and a history of thriving under tournament pressure, Croatia represent live value as tournament underdogs in Dallas.