Senegal face tall task against superior Elo in Group I opener

Senegal's Group I campaign began with a competitive loss to France, one of the tournament favourites. Despite the defeat, the team pressed cohesively in the first half and created several good chances, including efforts from Nicolas Jackson and Ismaila Sarr that came close to converting. France's second-half adjustments eventually overwhelmed Senegal's organized defensive shape, but the performance suggested a team capable of competing at this level.

Iraq, by contrast, conceded four goals to Norway in their opener despite scoring once through Aymen Hussein. The match revealed defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in the early stages, with head coach Graham Arnold later attributing the loss to early mistakes. Iraq's qualification—their first World Cup appearance in 40 years—came through a grueling 21-game qualifying run, and while the team showed resilience to reach the tournament, the gap in experience and tactical maturity is evident.

The desk's Elo model identifies a substantial gap between the two squads, one that sits well above what the implied odds currently reflect. Senegal's model probability materially exceeds the market's assessment, suggesting the market may be overcorrecting for their opening defeat. Iraq enters as clear underdogs with limited tournament experience at this level, and while head coach Graham Arnold expressed confidence in the squad's ability to surprise, the structural disadvantage is plain.

Senegal's attack features Sadio Mane and Nicolas Jackson, both capable of punishing defensive lapses. Their midfield, anchored by Idrissa Gueye and protected by captain Kalidou Koulibaly's experienced defense, offers a foundation to build on. For Iraq, Aymen Hussein remains a threat in the box and scored their only goal against Norway, but the team's defensive organization and tactical discipline have been exposed against quality opposition.

The value case for Senegal sits with their superior model probability relative to the market price. A second group match offers the team a chance to reset after the France loss and impose their style on a vulnerable opponent. Iraq's mentality may hold them together—manager Arnold has emphasized team unity and framed low expectations as a mental advantage—but raw ability and tournament pedigree favor Senegal substantially.