France favoured to open with win over Iraq at World Cup

France approach their Group I opener as one of the competition's elite forces, and the Elo model reflects that gulf in class. The desk's prior assigns them a substantial advantage over Iraq, whose path to qualification involved a gruelling 21-match campaign—the most of any nation—before securing their berth as the tournament's final qualifier. Iraq last played in a World Cup four decades ago, finishing bottom of their group with a single goal; the present moment carries similar structural challenges.

The market prices France as a near-certainty, with Iraq's implied probability reflecting their status as clear underdogs. The model's assessment sits materially above the market's France price, suggesting the favourite may be underrated by a small margin. Iraq's defensive strategy—a shuttling backline under head coach Graham Arnold—is designed for cohesion and collective resilience rather than technical dominance, a setup that may offer modest resistance but unlikely provides a foundation for a result.

France's recent World Cup warm-up showed vulnerability in structure; they laboured through the first half against Senegal before Kylian Mbappé's second-half intervention changed the trajectory. Michael Olise proved influential after moving centrally, while Ousmane Dembélé's tactical repositioning mid-match underscored Didier Deschamps' flexibility. Mbappé has historically performed at World Cups, and the team's attacking talent—with Olise and Dembélé providing multiple scoring threats—presents a clear mismatch for an Iraq unit that conceded four goals to Norway in their opening fixture.

Iraq's sole bright spot came through Aymen Hussein, who qualified them with a goal in the play-offs and netted once against Norway. His ability to operate in the box offers occasional danger, yet the supporting structure around him lacks the depth and rhythm required to consistently trouble France's back line. William Saliba's return to full fitness after overcoming his back concern strengthens France's defensive foundation.

The edge sits with France. While the market reflects their superiority, the model's probability suggests room for the favourite to offer value at the implied price, despite Iraq's resolve and Deschamps' careful squad rotation possibility.