Uruguay heavy favourite despite Cape Verde's impressive debut showing

Uruguay and Cape Verde meet in Miami on Sunday in a Group H fixture where the form sheet tells two starkly different stories. Uruguay drew 1–1 with Saudi Arabia in their opener, a result that masks a second-half dominance—they generated 28 shots in the second period alone and came from behind through a late equaliser. Cape Verde, by contrast, pulled off one of the tournament's biggest upsets by holding reigning European champions Spain to a goalless draw in their World Cup debut, a defensive masterclass that has captured global attention.

Yet the underlying quality gap remains substantial. The model's probability assessment sits materially above the market's implied price, reflecting Uruguay's clear technical and experience advantage. Uruguay are two-time World Cup champions with seasoned players like Federico Valverde at the core of their midfield and a manager in Marcelo Bielsa renowned for tactical innovation. Cape Verde, making their first World Cup appearance, achieved their result against Spain through exceptional discipline and organisation—they committed just one foul in 90 minutes and goalkeeper Vozinha made seven crucial saves. Their centre-backs Pico Lopes and Diney Borges won more duels and tackles than any Spain player on the night.

The question is whether Cape Verde can reproduce that defensive resilience against a Uruguay team that corrected course after a sluggish first half against Saudi Arabia. Uruguay's second-half display showed attacking intent and precision; Bielsa's tactical tweaks—moving Valverde more centrally and introducing fresh energy—worked. Darwin Núñez, withdrawn at half-time against Saudi Arabia after managing just eight touches, may be fresher here. Cape Verde, by contrast, will face the challenge of sustaining a defensive shape against sustained attacking pressure without the same pool of world-class attackers they contained in their opener.

The model's edge sits with Uruguay, and the market has not fully reflected the quality differential. A point for Cape Verde remains possible—their defensive organisation is genuine—but a Uruguay win carries clearer value at the implied odds.