New Zealand face steep test against Egypt in World Cup Group G

New Zealand's first match against Iran ended in a 2-2 draw, a result that underlined both their attacking potential and defensive fragility. Elijah Just scored twice and Chris Wood dominated physically, yet conceding two goals in the second half—including to an Iran side rebuilding after logistical disruption—pointed to structural vulnerabilities in the All Whites' backline. That resilience from Iran, forcing a draw despite unprecedented pre-tournament obstacles including forced relocation and visa constraints, suggests Amir Ghalenoei's team can be competitive in the group.

Egypt, by contrast, took a first-half lead against Belgium through Emam Ashour's well-struck finish and kept the match tight until conceding an own goal in the 66th minute. Mohamed Salah, despite an underwhelming club season, orchestrated Egypt's attacking shape—topping their passing and chance-creation metrics—and the Pharaohs demonstrated the tactical discipline to frustrate one of the tournament's established sides. An own goal on Egypt's part was the difference; a cleaner defensive showing could have yielded a different result.

The model assesses New Zealand as the stronger proposition here, rating their probability above the current market price. The All Whites' pace up front—channelled through Just and supported by Wood's physical presence—gives them an outlet against an Egypt team that will likely sit deeper and look to counter. Egypt's defensive solidity at the back cannot be taken for granted after the own-goal calamity, and Salah, whilst a class operator, cannot carry the entire weight of their attacking play. New Zealand also benefit from playing a side coming off fixture congestion and emotional drain, whereas the All Whites had an extra day's rest.

That said, Egypt's proven resilience at the Africa Cup of Nations earlier this year and their narrow loss to a stronger Belgium side in their opener suggest they are no makeweight in this group. The model's edge reflects New Zealand's tactical fit and home-ground advantage (in USA terms) rather than a gulf in quality. For those backing the underdog, Egypt's proven ability to stay in matches and Salah's tournament pedigree offer value; for those aligned with the desk's view, New Zealand's attacking threat and the market's relative underpricing of their chances offer the live opportunity.