United States favored to handle Australia despite uncertainty around Pulisic

The United States arrive in Group D as the clear favorites, having dominated Paraguay 4-1 in their opening fixture with a display that impressed observers across the tournament. The desk's Elo-derived probability sits well above the implied odds offered by the market, suggesting a structural edge for the Americans. Australia, meanwhile, has demonstrated genuine competitive mettle by executing a disciplined defensive gameplan to defeat Turkey 2-0—a result that confirms the Socceroos as a live opponent rather than a ceremonial matchup.

The market currently extends substantial respect to the United States, pricing them as heavy favorites. However, the desk's model assesses the gap between the two teams as materially larger than that pricing suggests. Australia's well-organized counter-attacking approach and set-piece threats from their towering squad pose tactical problems, but the depth and technical quality of Pochettino's roster—anchored by Premier League and European elite-league players—represents a gulf in squad composition that has historically favored the Americans.

The principal wildcard is Christian Pulisic's fitness. The winger suffered a calf injury against Paraguay and remained in individual training as of Wednesday, his availability for Friday listed as uncertain. Pulisic's absence would remove a creative and scoring threat from the left flank; alternatively, his presence could elevate the American attack to the standard that dismantled Paraguay. The news around potential replacements—including Gio Reyna's late heroics and Malik Tillman's impressive midfield cameos—suggests the US have capable alternatives, though Pulisic's form and playmaking remain irreplaceable assets.

Australia arrive buoyed by a morale-lifting upset of Turkey and motivated by dismissive rhetoric from American media figures. The Socceroos' defensive organization and clinical finishing from transitions represent genuine strengths, and Tony Popovic's willingness to gamble on youth—as evidenced by the selections of goalkeeper Patrick Beach and young scorer Nestory Irankunda—has already paid dividends. Patrick Beach's strong debut performance keeping a clean sheet and Irankunda's poacher's finish suggest an emerging generation ready to compete. Still, the task of containing a US midfield that controls space and exploits defensive gaps, while building coherent attacks against American pressure, remains formidable.