Turkey seek bounce-back against Paraguay in Group D

Turkey's World Cup campaign has begun in unexpected fashion. After arriving as one of the tournament's most polished sides—a youth-driven squad built around the creative brilliance of Arda Guler and the maturity of Kenan Yildiz—they fell to Australia 2-0 in their Group D opener. The loss stung, but it obscures a more nuanced picture about the fixture ahead.

Paraguay, meanwhile, absorbed a 4-1 drubbing from the USA in their opening match, a result that laid bare their creative limitations and defensive vulnerabilities under pressure. While Gustavo Alfaro's defensive system proved resilient during World Cup qualifying—built on the grit of Andrés Cubas in midfield and the solidity of captains Omar Alderete and Gustavo Gómez at the back—the intensity and fluidity of top-tier attacking play exposed gaps that the collective work rate could not paper over.

The Elo model views Turkey as the clear favourite in this encounter, reflecting their superior squad depth and tactical sophistication. Turkey's build-up play and possession dominance should offer them control of the tempo; Calhanoglu's distribution from deep, coupled with Yildiz's movement and Guler's creativity when fit, gives them multiple avenues to break down a Paraguay defence stretched thin by the previous result. The desk's probability assessment sits well above the implied market price on Turkey, suggesting the model's edge lies with the favourites here.

Paraguay will lean on their work ethic and set-piece threat, but their limited attacking outlets and the absence of creative spark from open play creates a structural mismatch. The news from their opening match—dominated early by the USA's midfield control and clinical finishing—underscores that when faced with coordinated pressing and technical superiority, Paraguay struggle to generate sustained attacking pressure. Turkey's experience and composure should prove telling over 90 minutes.

The defensive record both teams built during qualifying suggests this will not be a high-scoring affair, but Turkey's attacking potential edges the contest in terms of both probability and value at the current market assessment.