Scotland seek knockout berth against Morocco in World Cup Group C

Scotland began their World Cup campaign with a landmark 1-0 win over Haiti, ending a 36-year drought in tournament victories and moving atop Group C. That success comes with significant caveats, however. The team's performance was unconvincing—Scotland managed only modest expected goals, struggled with possession at times, and looked vulnerable to Haiti's counter-attacks despite the modest quality of the opposition. Against Morocco, a technically superior side that drew 1-1 with Brazil in their opener, those defensive frailties and possession issues could prove far more costly.

Morocco arrive as clear favourites in the model's assessment. Head coach Mohamed Ouahbi has introduced a more fluid, attacking brand of football, moving away from the pragmatic defensive approach of his predecessors. The team dominated large stretches against Brazil, took an early lead through Ismael Saibari, and will field a youthful midfield anchored by 18-year-old Ayyoub Bouaddi—who controlled the central areas impressively in his World Cup debut. That tactical sophistication and generational talent give Morocco a considerable edge over a Scotland side still finding cohesion.

Yet Scotland's path to the knockout stages remains mathematically viable. A point against Morocco would put them in a strong position to qualify, mirroring Cape Verde's defensive template against Spain earlier in the tournament. Steve Clarke's setup is designed to absorb pressure in a mid-block and attack on the break—a proven counter-attacking strategy. Ben Gannon-Doak's electric performance on the right wing against Haiti showed Scotland possess attacking weapons; John McGinn's goal-scoring history and Lewis Ferguson's midfield control offer genuine threat. The implied market odds rate Scotland's chances more optimistically than the model does, suggesting some value exists on the underdogs if they can tighten their shape and convert limited opportunities.

Scotland will need markedly improved midfield composure and defensive discipline. Billy Gilmour's absence through injury deprives them of assurance in possession, while the 4-4-2 formation Clarke deployed against Haiti pushed Scott McTominay into a deeper role than suits his box-crashing profile. Morocco's technical superiority and possession dominance should prevail, but Scotland's underdog status and the tournament format—where a draw keeps both sides alive—creates a contest closer than the aggregate quality gap suggests.