Scotland face World Cup heavyweights Brazil in decisive Group C clash

Scotland's first World Cup win in 36 years against Haiti has eased pressure on Steve Clarke's squad and confirmed their fighting spirit. John McGinn's deflected goal secured a narrow victory, and the team's defensive resilience, particularly Grant Hanley and Jack Hendry's partnership, proved crucial in a match where Haiti created late chances. Scotland's squad shows notable freshness: their starting XI has accumulated fewer total games than Brazil's this season, a potential advantage in the tournament's opening stages. McTominay, McGinn, and Lewis Ferguson—all reaching 50-game milestones before the World Cup—bring high match fitness to midfield, while Ben Gannon-Doak's pace down the right flank has already made an impact.

Brazil, by contrast, drew 1-1 with Morocco in a performance that raised questions about their cohesion. Their starting XI logged the highest average age for any Brazil lineup in two decades, and key midfielders Casemiro and Bruno Guimarães required half-time adjustments. Neymar's absence through injury looms large, leaving the team searching for attacking direction. Vinicius Junior salvaged a point with an individual moment of brilliance, but Morocco's technical superiority for long stretches exposed tactical fragility. Ancelotti's squad also faces uncertainty in the engine room, with Endrick left unused despite the team chasing a winner.

The model's probability sits materially above the market's implied price for Scotland, reflecting both the team's tournament freshness and Brazil's unconvincing opening display. Scotland's counter-attacking template proved effective against Haiti and could frustrate Brazil's wider, possession-heavy approach. Clarke's side will defend in a mid-block, accepting territory but seeking opportunities on the break—a formula that requires precision but has shown promise.

Brazil remain tournament favorites and will command possession, yet their midfield struggles against Morocco and Neymar's continued absence inject genuine uncertainty. The desk sees this as a fixture where the underdog's structural edge—fresher legs, tactical coherence, and the psychological lift of an opening win—translates into a clearer path to points than the market currently suggests.