Switzerland face Bosnia and Herzegovina in Group B clash

Switzerland arrive at this Group B fixture with commanding credentials. The side topped their European qualifying group unbeaten, conceding only twice across six matches and demonstrating the defensive solidity and attacking prowess expected of a tournament contender. Head coach Murat Yakin has assembled a squad comfortable operating in multiple formations—the preferred 4-2-3-1 and an adaptive 3-4-3 that proved effective at Euro 2024—giving them tactical flexibility against varied opposition.

Bosnia and Herzegovina qualified through the play-offs with memorable penalty shootout victories over Wales and Italy, a pathway that provides tournament experience but also suggests they occupy a different tier than Switzerland. The squad carries experience through 40-year-old Edin Dzeko, who earned a starting berth despite fitness concerns, and emerging talent like 18-year-old Kerim Alajbegovic, whose breakthrough year at Red Bull Salzburg included crucial penalties in both play-off shootouts. Sead Kolasinac, a rare survivor from their 2014 World Cup appearance alongside Dzeko, adds defensive continuity.

The model's probability sits materially above the implied price on Switzerland, reflecting the substantial gap in tournament pedigree and qualifying performance. Switzerland's one-loss record from their last thirteen internationals and Yakin's stated ambition to field the best Swiss World Cup team ever underscore their preparation level. Recent friendly results—a 1-1 draw with Australia and a 4-1 win over Jordan—suggest a side ready to compete at this stage.

A clear concern emerges from Switzerland's most recent competitive outing: despite 26 shots and dominating possession against Qatar, they drew 1-1 after conceding a late own goal. That wastefulness in front of goal, with strikers including Breel Embolo, Dan Ndoye, and Ruben Vargas squandering numerous chances, hints at execution risk in the final third. Should such finishing issues persist, the margin of superiority could narrow.

Bosnian resilience—evident in their play-off run and the late equaliser against Canada in their opening match—suggests they will compete, but the task of maintaining defensive shape against Switzerland's movement and possession quality looms large. The Elo gap and qualifying form point decisively toward Swiss dominance in this contest.