Bosnia and Herzegovina face Qatar in Group B clash

Bosnia and Herzegovina enter this fixture as clear favorites against Qatar, with the desk's Elo model assigning them a substantial probability edge. The two sides sit at very different points in their recent form trajectories: Bosnia and Herzegovina secured World Cup qualification through a dramatic playoff sequence, beating both Wales and Italy on penalties to reach the tournament for the first time since 2014. That playoff experience—converting decisive penalties under pressure—provides useful preparation for knockout football.

Qatar, by contrast, arrives in poor form. The news signals indicate Qatar have won just one of their last 12 matches and enter the group stage in terrible condition. Their preparations were further disrupted when friendlies against Serbia and Argentina were cancelled due to the Iran-US conflict, limiting their ability to build momentum. Qatar did manage to secure a dramatic draw against Switzerland in their opening match, scoring a stoppage-time equalizer, but that came against a team that dominated possession and created far more chances.

Bosnia and Herzegovina's squad carries useful experience. Edin Dzeko, now 40, makes his second World Cup appearance and retains the ability to perform in big matches. Fellow 2014 World Cup veteran Sead Kolasinac provides additional tournament know-how, though the latter picked up an injury in their opening draw against Canada. The emergence of 18-year-old Kerim Alajbegovic—who scored decisive penalties in both playoff shootouts—adds an element of youth and clutch composure to the squad.

In their opening fixture, Bosnia and Herzegovina drew 1-1 with Canada after leading at halftime, suggesting they can trouble opposition defenses but may need to improve their finishing. Qatar's defensive vulnerabilities were exposed against Switzerland, where they conceded numerous chances despite the eventual draw.

The desk's model probability sits well above the implied market price for Bosnia and Herzegovina, suggesting value on the favorites. Qatar's recent form and disrupted preparation leave them as clear underdogs, though their ability to salvage a point against Switzerland hints they can compete when well-organized defensively.